Hurricane Wilma a Category 5 monster – Oct 19, 2005

CNN.com – Hurricane Wilma a Category 5 monster – Oct 19, 2005: “Hurricane Wilma a Category 5 monster
‘Extremely dangerous’ storm has top sustained winds of 175 mph”

What’s the impact on the market?
Bad, Bad….

Oil Price is also escalating…

And with the 2 above, it is naturally that they will take a toll at the US Economy….The US Economy is one key indicators for many world markets, Singapore included….So you can imagine what is the state of the STI Index these few days…

1st Rule of Trading

Guess what is the 1st rule of trading…I learnt it the hard way….The 1st rule of trading is not to be emotional whilst trading..Take for example, last week I was sitting on a couple of bucks of profit…for my 1st stocks i bought..(Close pals, know what stock I am referring to).Due to greed, yes, the word is GREED!) I refuse to sell when I am sitting on profit…but guess what I didn’t want to let go…and take profit despite warnings from pals n charts..

So, today, I finally swallow the bitter pill, I cut my stock and made a loss naturally…Nothing ventured, nothing gained…This is a painful lesson but in all good faith, it will serve me well, when I next trade..I guess it is time to head back to the books and start reading learning…

And don’t ever get too emotional. It doesn’t help!

SPH reports 12.7% rise in profit from operations – October 11, 2005

SPH reports 12.7% rise in profit from operations – October 11, 2005

SINGAPORE – Singapore Press Holdings on Tuesday reported a 12.7 per cent rise in profit from operations to $380.8 million in the financial year ended Aug 31, 2005.

Including exceptional charges and gains from the disposal of its stake in StarHub this year, and Times House and its Belgacom stake last year, the company booked a net profit of $494.7 million against $546.3 million the previous year.

Group operating revenue hit the $1.0 billion mark, boosted by revenue from the Group’s core newspaper and magazine operations which grew 7.0 per cent to $891.8 million, and property segment which saw revenues rise 8.3 per cent to $89.4 million.

The gains were partially offset by lower revenue from the broadcasting and multimedia segment which fell 51.6 per cent to $26.3 million as a result of the cessation of the Group’s broadcasting operations on Jan 1, 2005.

Total operating expenses fell 1.2 per cent to $635.4 million, which were largely attributable to cost savings with the cessation of broadcasting operations. This was partially offset by higher newspaper production costs, particularly newsprint cost which increased 14.4 per cent, and higher magazine production costs following the acquisition of Blu Inc media and publishing business and the expansion of the Group’s existing magazine business.

Commenting on the outlook for the next financial year, chief executive officer Alan Chan said: ‘The Group’s advertising revenue is expected to move in tandem with the economy. However, there are concerns over global economic factors, such as the continued pressure on oil prices and interest rate hikes. Barring any adverse development in the economic and geopolitical environment, the directors expect the profit from operations of the Group for the next financial year to be comparable to the current financial year.’

The directors of SPH have proposed a net final dividend of 15.8 cents per share for FY2005, comprising a net normal dividend of 8.0 cents per share and a net special dividend of 7.8 cents per share. This will be paid on Dec 22, 2005. Together with the interim dividend, total net dividend for FY2005 totals 22.8 cents. SPH said it is also reviewing the possibility of paying quarterly dividends.

Singapore Market Outlook

MARKETS

The Singapore economy grew at 6.0% YoY in 3Q, buoyed by the biomedical and services sectors (see report below for more details), based on figures released this morning. This is a fairly positive set of numbers, and should give the market a slight lift this morning. On the corporate front, ST Engineering has kicked off the 3Q result season with an in line set of results, we are maintaining our FY05 full year number and BUY rating (see report below) on the stock. Another key STI component stock, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), is releasing its FY05 results on Tuesday and this should also be a fairly in line set of results.

On the stock market, the STI closed last week at 2305.24, up 16 points or 0.7% on Friday, but was flat for the week. Meanwhile, the UOB Sesdaq Index added 1.7% on Friday, bringing total gains for the week to 3.1%. Another outperformer was the Properties Index, which gained 4.5% for the week. Trading volume was good for the week, staying above 1.1 billion shares in four out of the five trading days.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally managed to close Friday session with a modest gain of 5.2 points – the first gain in the last five trading sessions. It closed at 10292.31, down 2.6% for the week. On Friday, the S&P 500 gained 4 points or 0.4% to 1195.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6 points or 0.3% to 2090.35. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.9%.

Meanwhile, oil closed up 0.8% on Friday, but was down 5.8% for the week. Crude oil for November delivery added 48 cents on Friday to close at US$61.84 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

FOCUS

Economy: Singapore’s advance estimates for 3Q05 came in at 6% YoY, extending further the 5.4% YoY pace in 2Q (revised up from 5.2% YoY). This outcome is in line with consensus forecast of 6% (range: 4% to 6.6%) and above our call of 5%. As expected, growth momentum on a QoQ basis slowed markedly, due to the strong 18% QoQ pace in 2Q05. With higher base, 3Q05 rose 3.2% QoQ. The modest QoQ number is still quite respectable considering the higher base as well as the marginal upward revision in the YoY growth figure. The key drivers were clearly biomedical and transport engineering, which boosted the manufacturing output to 10% YoY pace vs. 6.3% YoY in 2Q, which was already a strong quarter. With support from the financial and business services segments, overall services sector maintained its pace of expansion, at 5.1% YoY, unchanged from 2Q. For the first three quarters, Singapore’s GDP growth has already hit 4.7% YoY, which is above official forecast of 3.5-4.5% and our projection of 4.5%. With the pace in manufacturing and services sector expected to pick up further in 2H05, overall growth is likely to hit 5% for 2005. We will be looking to revise our figures once the full 3Q report is out in November.

ST Engineering (STE): STE 3Q05 results came in generally as guided previously. Turnover in 3Q05 rose 5% YoY to S$810m, with contributions from all sectors except Land Systems, which saw a 91% YoY drop in sales to S$119m. A combination of lower delivery of Bronco as well as slower munitions and Primus deliveries affected performance in Land Systems. Overall net profits gained 8% YoY to S$104.5m, a slower pace compared to the 17% rise in 2Q05. Order book stands at S$5.53b and about S$0.8b is expected to be booked in 4Q05. Management thus guided for both turnover and PBT to be higher in FY05 vs. FY04. With net profits in the first nine months amounting to S$294m, we are keeping our FY05 earnings forecast of S$402.9m. With contributions expected to strengthen further especially in the Aerospace and Marine segments, we are anticipating earnings to grow further to S$419.5m in FY06. At S$2.52, STE’s shares are trading at 17.5x FY06 PE, which is marginally below the counter’s average PE of 18.7x (range: 14-28x). One key support is the stock’s anticipated net dividend yield of 4.4% for FY05 and 3.9% for FY06. As such, we continue to rate STE as a BUY, with target price of S$2.80.

Keppel Land (KepLand): KepLand announced last Friday that it had acquired an additional 13.96% stake in Dragon Land. This brings its total stake in Dragon Land from 24.9% to 38.86%. Under the takeover code, Keppel Land has accordingly offered a conditional general offer (GO) for the rest of Dragon Land’s shares at US$0.11 per share (or S$0.186). This offer price represents a premium of 47% over the last traded price of US$0.075 per share and a premium of 56% over its 1H05 book value of S$0.12. If all the remaining shareholders of Dragon Land accepts KepLand’s offer, the exercise will cost KepLand a total of S$57.4m. This in turn could increase KepLand’s gearing to 1.05 times. KepLand said that the reason for the takeover of Dragon land is to better realise Dragon Land’s assets. KepLand has invested in Dragon Land since 2001 and it has not contributed meaningfully to KepLand’s bottomline to date. Dragon Land’s main asset is its land in Changzhou (Jiangsu Province, 150 km north-west of Shanghai and with about 1m inhabitants and Country Club developments in Jianyin and Tianjin. It appears that KepLand is diversifying its exposure in China to the less developed parts of the country, and this strategy is understandable. However, paying such a huge premium (to book value and last traded price) is a bit more difficult to appreciate, particularly when Dragon Land continues to be a loss making company. We see KepLand as highly likely to get over 50% acceptance and hence making the GO unconditional. Even though we do not see the acquisition as being particularly attractive (in terms of valuation and assets), Dragon Land does have a healthy balance sheet and is unlikely to have a material impact on Keppel Land operations and profitability. We maintain our HOLD rating on KepLand.

Summary for SPH – Yahoo! Singapore Finance – Share Prices, Charts, News and more

T39.SI: Summary for SPH – Yahoo! Singapore Finance – Share Prices, Charts, News and more: “PH (SES:T39.SI) Delayed quote data Edit
Last Trade: 4.94
Trade Time: 9:28AM SGT
Change: Up 0.04 (0.82%)
Prev Close: 4.90
Open: 4.90
Bid: 4.92
Ask: 4.94
1y Target Est: N/A

Day’s Range: 4.88 – 4.94
52wk Range: 4.20 – 4.92
Volume: 2,023,000
Avg Vol (3m): 4,078,020
Market Cap: N/A
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): 0.00
Div & Yield: 0.113 (2.30%)
[Chart]
1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y “

Cheong Ah!!! SPH!

Got myself vested in SPH on friday. Bought@$4.70 on friday, 7th Oct 2005… All this after analysis together with Decipher from Decipher Labs…

Today, helped by the release of the economic figures of singapore..SPH counter closes@4.90, with volume about 3 times that of friday. What does this means? It mean that SPH may break its 52 weeks high of 4.92! 5 Bucks is within sigh..given that the financial results of SPH meet or exceed investors/business expectation….

Given that no boat flips in the drain, we should see SPH rally with support breaking the 4.92 mark…

It is my own personal view..but rest assured it should all come true…After all, the technical analysis shows that SPH is geared towards a breakout and given that the better than expected economic data released by Ministry of Trade & Industry….

This is Wynx, keeping his fingers crossed….

GuocoLand (F17.SI)

Done my analysis on the chart of Guocoland(F17.sI)

Not really sure if my analysis is right or not…but the chart seems to suggest that the Guocoland’s volume these few days, seems to suggest that they are readying for a break out…

What’s ur tots, fellas?

Incidentally, a friend of mine works in Guocoland…Let me go google to see if there are any +ve news about them these days.. +ve news likely to bring attention to the stock…